Prachanda, under pressure from political parties at home and resentment from India, retracted his recent speech that he made in front of 700-plus cadres in a closed-door training session that blamed an Indo-US conspiracy for his ouster as PM. But both he and Bhattarai have been repeating the accusation of destabilising Nepal openly, which is bound to have an effect. Although India’s Nepal policy is being perceived as a failure — the peace process it mediated is faltering, democracy in a practical sense has failed to take root — India did tell PM Nepal that it was ready to extend any help its northern neighbour wanted on the peace and constitution-writing process.
But what will this mean when the country gasps in a political vacuum? A heavy toll has already been taken on the government’s authority. People are asking questions: will the constitution be done by the stipulated deadline of May 2011? Will the peace process move smoothly? If not, what will be the consequences at home and abroad?
Nepali Congress leader and former PM G.P. Koirala, largely credited with bringing the Maoists to the peace process, recently warned Maoists they may have to face the wrath of the state as did the LTTE in Sri Lanka and as Islamists in Pakistan currently do. The Maoists declared then that now that the monarchy’s fallen, the Nepali Congress is their biggest enemy and needs to be eliminated. Just as they managed to get every other party on their side while eliminating the monarchy, the Maoists may also try to unify all parties of the Left for the limited purpose of going against the Congress — a trend of the past three years. Koirala had refused to allow any debate within the Congress on whether to keep supporting the “constitutional monarchy” after Prachanda asked him “How can you become the first President of the Republic of Nepal without first removing the king”? Having accomplished that, the Maoists are now exploring another political equation: exploring Left unity with Jhalnath Khanal, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the party that PM Nepal belongs to. It has moved far enough to, say, form a government together, as Khanal does not command majority support within his party. But that has already weakened PM Nepal enormously.
If at all that happens, that will mean total isolation of the Nepali Congress, and a much more marginalised role in the peace and constitution-writing process. What many Nepal-watchers, including India, did not realise was that the removal of the monarchy in haste, without securing the Maoists’ firm commitment to not fiddle with the independence of the judiciary or media and to not politicise or demoralise the Nepal army, would lead to the power vacuum we see today. Filling it up appears difficult, if not impossible.
On India’s part, despite the initiative it took in bringing Maoists and the pro-democracy parties of Nepal together for peace and stability in the neighbourhood that obviously goes in its own interest, it failed on four counts clearly. That the Maoists, once they signed the 12-point agreement, will act like pro-democracy forces and shun violence, and that G.P. Koirala who took power from the king in April 2006 will act like a statesman, were the two major miscalculations. Third, India also underestimated the likely strength of the Maoists in its pre-election estimate — that they wouldn’t win not more than 20 of the 601 seat — and clearly, India also failed to gauge the growing presence and interest of China in Nepal as the resultant power vacuum prevails. Madhav Nepal is back with assurance from India of any support in the peace and constitution-writing process, but the power vacuum and the imminent parting of the Maoists and pro-democracy forces — partners in the promised peace and democracy — make things more uncertain.
Nice job
ReplyDeleteHello, I am Shirish, a reporter at the Kathmandu Post, and am doing a feature for the Saturday special on Blogging. The piece will come on 29th August, 09. I read your blog, and I was wondering if you could be so kind as to answer some of my queries. I cannot guarantee that you will be quoted, but your help will definitely let the readers know more of blogging in Nepal. You may answer all, or any question you feel like answering. You may provide any extra information, and your name, real or an ID, but must understand that you may be quoted by the Post. Please mail your answers to shirishp@wlink.com.np What is your occupation? What age group do you think you fall in: <16, 16-31, 31-49, 49-65, above 65? Why do you blog? When did you start blogging from? Why? What makes you keep blogging, without any strong incentive? How many bloggers do you think are there in Nepal? Do you regularly read other bloggers? How many, and how many are Nepali? Do you believe that a blog can really make a difference? If yes, How? I hope the questions are not too bothersome. Happy Writing! -Shirish
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