Fears are growing of a breakdown in the reconciliation between Nepal’s national army and former Maoist rebels now heading the government, threatening the Himalayan state’s three-year-old peace process.
The country is struggling to integrate 19,000 Maoist cadres into the national army, forces which were bitter adversaries during an 11-year civil war and which remain deeply suspicious of one another.
“We are at a serious threat of civil war as the Maoists have shown [their] intention to capture power by integrating their combatants in the national army,” said Sushil Koirala, acting president of the Nepali Congress party.
His party played a big role in bringing the Maoists to the peace process and is now in opposition. “The [government’s] coalition members are likely to withdraw support to the government very soon. If the Maoists [refuse] to step down in that situation, the military takeover is quite possible.”
Disputes have arisen over new recruits to the Nepalese army and the extension of the terms of eight generals. The Maoists unsuccessfully challenged the new appointments in the Supreme Court.
The army, meanwhile, has complained it is being denied resources to counter a regional terror threat and of China’s growing influence in the country.
But in the latest sign of tensions, the army has threatened to withdraw players from events in Nepal’s national games, which begin on Monday, because Maoists are also competing.
So great are the tensions between the government and the army that Ram Bahadur Thapa “Badal”, the defence minister, and chief of army staff Rook Mangud Katwal are not on speaking terms. They rely on Puspa Kamal Dahal, prime minister, to mediate between them.
“Retaliation is very much likely if the Maoist government continues with its current behaviour or tries to irritate us further,” warned a senior general on condition of anonymity.
Analysts say the country’s difficulties with the military integration go hand in hand with political reconciliation and agreement over a new constitution.
“Lack of progress on one of these impinges on the other,” said a former diplomat to Kathmandu, Nepal’s capital.
The diplomat also said that there were practical concerns over the size of the army, which numbers about 100,000 people, and how to equate ranks in the regular army with those in the former guerrilla force.
“A few thousand extra troops will swell the ranks of the army, which is already fairly large for Nepal,” he said.
“The entire 19,000 [cadres] certified by the United Nations cannot be taken in. Only a certain number of those will have to be taken.”
Karin Landgren, the head of the United Nations mission in Nepal, has appealed for the re-establishment of “trust and confidence” between the rival parties, saying reconciliation had come under strain in the past months.
The Maoist government is continuing its fight in the Supreme Court. It has lodged a plea at the court to reconsider its stay order on the state not to obstruct the extension of the eight generals’ terms in office.
The head of the army declined to comment on the challenges facing the force. “The Nepal army is committed to democracy and the rule of law. Our only stand is we won’t carry any one party’s flag,” said Rook Mangud Katwal, the chief of army staff.
The Financial Times
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