May is when Nepal must decide to remain a competitive multiparty democracy or turn into a state slipping irrevocably into ultra-left quicksand fashioned by Maoist former rebels.
After being unable to muster a simple majority to support a no-confidence vote in parliament against the current government, the Maoists are set to launch an indefinite nationwide shutdown from May 2 in a bid to bring Madhav Kumar Nepal's government to its knees.The decision by former Prime Minister Prachanda, supreme leader of the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), to rally masses in the streets has created a climate of fear in Kathmandu where people are hoarding essentials and silently tolerating an extortionate campaign by the Maoists to feed and lodge their cadres during the shutdown.
The scale of the campaign, rampant in rural areas during a decade of armed conflict, was unheard of in Kathmandu.
But hundreds of thousands of Maoist cadres have already gathered from neighboring districts in Kathmandu, which will be the center of Maoist protests this time.
Several cadres have been arrested for possessing knives, while one Kathmandu-bound cadre was arrested in possession of a hand grenade, indicating the protests may turn violent.
The U.N. Mission in Nepal has called for an investigation and appropriate disciplinary action against the cadre.
The government that was formed after Prachanda's coalition collapsed last May over his sacking of the country's army chief is in a fix.
''Relenting to Maoist pressure and handing over the reins of the government to Prachanda will mean a permanent Maoist takeover,'' says Narayan Wagle, editor of the influential daily Nagarik.
The timing of the protests explains Wagle's argument.
The Maoists are set to enforce the shutdown just weeks before the expiry of the May 28 deadline for settling the future of more than 19,000 Maoist former combatants and promulgating a new Constitution.
Prachanda's plan, analysts say, is to form a new government under his leadership before May 28, exploit the chaotic post-May 28 scenario to prolong his government's life as long as he can and consolidate his party's grip on political life in Nepal.
''The Maoists already hold the lower class physically hostage,'' Wagle says. ''And with their repeated protests and shutdowns, they have achieved a psychological victory over the tired middle and upper-middle classes that are arguing that relenting to Maoist pressure is a far better option than facing indefinite shutdown.''
Premier Nepal, who is in Thimphu attending the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation summit, has said he is willing to step down if Nepal's fractious political parties can agree on a prime ministerial candidate other than Prachanda.
But the premier said that out of humility, Wagle says. ''He represents 22 political parties in his coalition and has to abide by their decision. If the 22 political parties refuse to relent, the other option for the government is a crackdown.''
So far, the government has indicated it will choose the second option.
Despite the ''show of humility'' by the premier, a moderate communist leader who comes from the country's third largest party, his government has issued directives to the Nepal Police, the Armed Police Force and the Nepal Army to remain on a high alert.
On Thursday, soldiers were seen drilling in Kathmandu, simulating a crackdown on protesters.
Ishwor Pokharel, general secretary of Premier Nepal's Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), argues the Maoist demand only they should lead a government by virtue of their being the largest party in parliament holds little ground.
''Under Nepal's parliamentary system, one needs simple majority to form a government. Being the largest party isn't sufficient,'' he said. ''And the Maoists had a chance to govern, which they squandered.''
Wagle said if the government intends to safeguard democracy, it must not relent.
''Under a Maoist government, Nepal might remain a competitive multiparty system, but it will not be a competitive multiparty democracy,'' he said.
And Premier Nepal is likely to return from Thimphu to Kathmandu an emboldened man.
During a 30-minute meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Indian House in the SAARC village on Thursday, Singh pledged continued Indian support to Nepal's government, according to the Nepal's National News Agency.
That could mean a further hardening of positions in Nepal.
''The best course for the country would be to form an all-party government. But with Prachanda's insistence that only he should lead such a government and his decision to confront government forces, that option is also unlikely to be explored,'' Wagle said.
The power struggle has overshadowed Nepal's peace process.
The special assembly elected in April 2008 as part of the process aimed at settling the future of Maoist combatants and writing a new constitution by May 28 has few attendees these days.
Prachanda led a 10-year armed conflict against government forces until 2006, demanding the abolition of monarchy and a new constitution.
The special assembly where Maoists have the biggest presence abolished the country's 240-year-old monarchy in May 2008, but Prachanda's order last year to sack the army chief united rival parties, including those in his own coalition, against him and President Ram Baran Yadav countermanded the order.
Since then, Nepal's peace process has progressed at snail's pace with the Maoists focusing more on toppling the government than settling the future of their combatants and writing a constitution.
==Kyodo
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