Nepal coalition looks shaky

Prateek Pradhan in Financial Times

Nepal's ruling coalition was struggling for stability at the weekend. Disputes over the allocation of cabinet portfolios underscored the uneasy balance Madhav Kumar Nepal, prime minister, must strike in guiding the 22-party alliance.

After four weeks of bargaining, during most of which he had the cabinet largely to himself, Mr Nepal has managed to allot 27 of 45 ministerial positions. Yet the business of governing has only just begun.

The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which is the largest party in parliament and led the government until last month, is posing the biggest challenge. Its members are obstructing legislative sessions, blockading government offices, attacking representatives of other parties and holding mass rallies almost daily.

Puspa Kamal "Prachanda" Dahal, Mr Nepal's predecessor as prime minister and the Maoist leader who led the party's bloody decade-long revolutionary war against the government, has said he will launch a new "people's movement".

Mr Dahal's party is focused on the issue that led it to quit government last month - a demand that the army chief be replaced. The new coalition is seen as tilted toward India and the Maoists toward China.

Lok Raj Baral, a political analyst in Kathmandu, said: "Seeing the type of people and the parties in the coalition, I doubt they can work in tandem for long."

Yet Surya Bahadur Thapa, who has been prime minister several times, said he expected the government to hold together because of the coalition partners' aversion to Maoists gaining power again or the option of military rule.

"The future of the government will largely depend on political mobilisation by coalition partners," said Mr Thapa, who heads the Nepal Janashakti party, a coalition member.

Cohesion will be crucial as Mr Nepal responds to the global economic slowdown's deepening effect on Nepal. The country depends on remittances from Nepalis working overseas, particularly in the Gulf states and east Asia.

However, demand for labourers to go abroad has fallen recently by about 10 per cent each month, according to Nepal's Foreign Employment Association. Unemployed youths have burned tyres and attacked vehicles.

On top of this, Mr Nepal faces the challenge of reinvigorating deadlocked discussions on drafting a constitution for the new republic proclaimed when the monarchy was abolished last year, a demand of the Maoists.

The standoff over the army chief also confronts Mr Nepal with the unresolved issue of the Maoist revolutionary army, which has been confined to encampments since the war ended in 2006.