Nepal's fragile new government

False start

In office but not yet in power

THE ashes of the Maoist government in Nepal have been scattered, but the moderate Communist one that replaced it last month has done little to assure observers that it is the new holder of the country’s seats of power. As rival coalition parties continue to bicker over ministerial portfolios, the country is beginning to tire of waiting for a new cabinet, and worries about instability mount.

Madhav Kumar Nepal, the country’s post-Maoist prime minister, is trying to mediate as best he can, but to little avail. The main coalition partners, including his ruling Unified Marxist-Leninist (UML) party, the Nepali Congress and the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum, this week at last agreed on how to carve up cabinet posts; other, smaller parties are still in talks. Only after the cabinet forms can the Constituent Assembly elected last year hope to get on with its tasks of constitution-making and peace-building.

The Maoists, meanwhile, no longer in government, are making it clear they are not quite out of power. On June 15th activists from their Youth Communist League were able to shut down the capital, Kathmandu, after they accused the UML’s youth faction of murdering one of their leaders. Flag-waving, tyre-burning groups enforced the shutting of shops and held up cyclists; other traffic dared not venture out.

The scene recalled the bad old days of political instability and paralysis in the capital during the ten-year civil war with the Maoists that ended in 2006. The only noises to puncture the padding of pedestrians around the city were the screeching of sirens from ambulances and police cars, and the cheers of animated activists.

This strike was one of many protests across the country over the bigger issue of the aborted sacking in May of the chief of the army by the Maoist prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (formerly known as Prachanda). This led the Maoists to quit government. But they remain determined that most of around 23,000 former Maoist guerrillas, still in UN-supervised cantonments, will be merged with the national army. The army remains opposed to this, and is backed by the other big parties and by India, an overbearing neighbour.

In the name of civilian supremacy, the Maoists are now blockading the assembly. They have even threatened to set up parallel governments in some districts. A series of attacks—by other groups as well as the Maoists—has raised concerns about worsening political violence. Despite the Maoists’ repeated assertions of commitment to peace, there is a lingering fear that they may return to the jungle.

Nepal has had 18 governments since 1990. So it is not far-fetched to imagine the collapse of this latest one after just a few weeks. Nor is a return to civil war out of the question. When it comes to forming a government, the cards are still in Mr Nepal’s hands. That achieved, it may be possible to coax the Maoists back to the table. But lasting peace still hinges on the future of the two armies and that dispute shows few signs of being settled.

Economist